Saturday, March 21, 2020

The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

This New York Times article has a bit of a grim title but includes a solid collection of facts and expert perspectives (as you'd expect from the NYT). Although the reporting is US-based, the implications mentioned in the article clearly apply to any country grappling with the virus. There are also few good analogies in here which you can put into your toolbox for speaking with others about the impact of the pandemic.

Helpful excerpts taken directly from the article:

  • Recommended actions include "testing for the virus, tracing contacts, and reducing human interactions by stopping mass gatherings, working from home and curbing travel."
  • “A fire on your stove you could put out with a fire extinguisher, but if your kitchen is ablaze, that fire extinguisher probably won’t work,” said Dr. Carter Mecher, a senior medical adviser for public health at the Department of Veterans Affairs and a former director of medical preparedness policy at the White House during the Obama and Bush administrations. “Communities that pull the fire extinguisher early are much more effective.”
  • “By the time you have a death in the community, you have a lot of cases already,” said Dr. Mecher. “It’s giving you insight into where the epidemic was, not where it is, when you have something fast moving.” He added: “Think starlight. That light isn’t from now, it’s from however long it took to get here."

No comments:

Post a Comment